Gold: The Hero’s Return or the Final Battle at the Summit
Updated: Sep 13
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Gold across the annual, monthly, weekly and daily charts: a conditional path from $4,300 to $5,300 and the battle around $5,400
Ali Mirzaei | Author of the forthcoming book SIXSIGNAL | 12 September 2026
Gold stands before a decisive battle. Can it rise from around $4,300 and return to $5,300, or would that recovery be a final effort before an extended period of consolidation and correction? My current view allows for a short-term rally within a cautious longer-term outlook. These perspectives are not contradictory: they emerge from reading four timeframes together.
The annual chart: a summit that must prove itself
My reading of gold’s long-term structure is that $5,300–$5,400 could form a major ceiling for the next two to three years. In my base scenario, gold does not sustain a break above $5,400 during that period. This is my analytical view, not a certainty about the future. Sustained trading above that area would require me to revise the thesis.
$5,300 is the potential recovery target; $5,400 marks the upper edge of the longer-term resistance zone. I have further technical and fundamental reasons for this view, but a detailed discussion lies beyond this article. I will allow market behaviour through the end of 2026 to clarify its validity.
The monthly chart: signs of a return
In my reading of the monthly chart, a morning-star-like structure is emerging. It may support the possibility of an ending correction and returning demand. Its validity depends on candle closes and subsequent price action. This structure alone does not guarantee $5,300: daily and weekly confirmations are also needed.
The daily chart: the first gate at $4,400
My short-term path starts with support near $4,300 holding. Given my interpretation of regional conditions and price action, losing this area does not appear easy, but no support is unbreakable.
On the daily chart, I am watching a potential double bottom. A break and sustained move above $4,400 could provide the first confirmation of a recovery and open a test of $4,600. Until then, this remains a developing pattern rather than a confirmed rally.
The weekly chart: confirmation between $4,600 and $4,700
My weekly scenario is a developing inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. If completed, this reversal formation could signal the end of the correction from roughly $5,300 to $3,900. In this framework, $4,600 is the first hurdle, around $4,660 is an intermediate confirmation level, and a sustained break through the $4,700 area would offer stronger confirmation. These figures describe a resistance zone, not three separate targets.
I interpret the weekly hammer or doji-like candle, followed by a candle unable to fully engulf it, as a possible sign of easing selling pressure. This combination may increase the likelihood of a strong bullish candle in the following week, but it is not an infallible market rule.
If a breakout is followed by continuing demand, my bullish scenario targets approximately $5,300. The pattern’s roughly $700 height also informs this framework. The measured objective depends on the exact neckline and breakout point; it is not guaranteed.
Four timeframes, one connected reading
The sequence is as follows: holding $4,300 and breaking $4,400 on the daily chart sets up a test of $4,600. A sustained weekly break through $4,660–$4,700 strengthens the inverse head-and-shoulders scenario. That move would align with the monthly recovery reading and increase the possibility of a return to $5,300. At that point, the long-term $5,300–$5,400 resistance zone becomes central again.
These confirmations complement one another. A daily breakout does not automatically complete a weekly pattern or determine a monthly candle close. Each timeframe must provide its own confirmation.
If the hero reaches the summit, what comes next?
For me, reaching $5,300 would not necessarily mark the beginning of a new long-term uptrend. It could be the final test of that area within the horizon discussed. Afterwards, I would watch two paths: an extended range of roughly $3,900–$5,300, or a further correction towards $3,200 and possibly lower. The latter requires structural deterioration and breaks of the relevant supports. Reaching the summit alone is not a definitive sell signal.
If price behaviour in the coming week fails to support the recovery scenario, particularly if support near $4,300 is lost, I will reassess the possibility of a return to $3,900. Conversely, sustained trading above $5,400 would challenge my two-to-three-year ceiling thesis.
The market is the final judge
Curtis Faith is the author of Way of the Turtle. My approach here is that we should not claim to predict the future with certainty; we should prepare for different market behaviours. This expresses my own approach and is not a verbatim quotation from Faith.
This analysis is built on connecting signals across timeframes, the approach I discuss in my forthcoming book SIXSIGNAL. At this stage, I consider a conditional short-term rise towards $5,300 a reasonable scenario. Longer term, I remain sceptical about a sustained break above $5,300–$5,400. Price, time and market behaviour will deliver the final verdict.
Charts: four annotated images supplied by the author. Prices shown are from the time of capture, not live quotes. This article presents the author’s personal educational analysis, not individualised investment advice.
Book reference: https://www.mheducation.com/highered/mhp/product/way-turtle-secret-methods-turned-ordinary-people-into-legendary-traders.html
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